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UFC Fight Predictions Win Probability · Market Comparisons

Know who wins before the bell rings.

Versus runs mathematical fight predictions for every UFC bout and compares them against live sportsbook lines — so you can see exactly where the market may have it wrong.

Win Probability
Exact win percentage for every fighter on the card, before the event.
Versus vs Market
Side-by-side comparison of Versus probabilities against DraftKings sportsbook lines.
Variance Signal
Fights sorted by where Versus diverges most from the market — built on UFC fight predictions going back to 2017.
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Sample Prediction — Subscribe for Full Access
EVENT
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Saturday, August 8, 2026
Sorted by: Win Probability Variance
FEATHERWEIGHT VAR 25.0%
Darren Elkins
#47 · 19-11
40%
VS
Yadier del Valle
#37 · 2-1
60%
HEAVYWEIGHT
Steven Asplund
#33 · 1-1
VS
Guilherme Pat
#36 · 1-1
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT
Diyar Nurgozhay
#36 · 1-2
VS
Bruno Lopes
#30 · 1-2
LIGHTWEIGHT
Mateusz Gamrot
#16 · 9-4
VS
Quillan Salkilld
#1 · 5-0
LIGHTWEIGHT
Diego Ferreira
#65 · 10-7
VS
Billy Quarantillo
#57 · 6-5
WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT
Juliana Miller
#25 · 2-3
VS
Ravena Oliveira
#48 · 0-3
WOMEN'S STRAWWEIGHT
Amanda Lemos
#17 · 9-6
VS
Alexia Thainara
#4 · 3-0
  • Percentages represent mathematical win probability. Sportsbook lines are displayed for comparison purposes.
  • Fighters with fewer than two UFC bouts are not rated and are not included in predictions.
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