Seven Facts and One Opinion about Super Bowl LVIII

By: Steve Pugh, Founder, Versus Sports Simulator
February 7, 2024

Super Bowl LVIII is set to unfold at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sunday, February 11, 2024. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 PM EST, and it marks the inaugural Super Bowl hosted in the state of Nevada. Broadcasting on CBS, the clash features the NFC Champions, the San Francisco 49ers, led by head coach Kyle Shanahan, and the AFC Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, coached by Andy Reid.

Versus Sports Simulator currently has the 49ers favored by 3.5 points and expects them to cover the 2.5 point spread published at most sports books. Below is the Versus projection for the final score of the game, along with win probability percentages.

While Versus is a useful tool for analyzing potential outcomes based on empirical data, you still have to do your homework! In this article, we’re going to cover seven statistical facts about these two teams and offer an opinion on the final outcome of the game. So without further ado, let’s dive in.

The Case for San Francisco

Fact 1: KC's Offense Lags Behind Despite Strong Defense

Versus Sports Simulator’s offensive and defensive ratings paint an intriguing picture to examine for the two contenders. Keep in mind, these ratings (and associated ordinal rankings) aren’t the same as traditional offensive and defensive ratings/rankings which are typically based on points scored offensively, yards earned, etc. According to the Versus algorithm, a team’s offensive ranking depicts the team’s ability to score points in general, whether they are scored on offense, defense, or special teams. And more importantly, it is based on who the points were scored against qualitatively - that is, the level of competition is implicitly included in the model. Likewise, a team’s defensive ranking describes how well the team prevents other teams from scoring.

With all that said, San Francisco is ranked #2 in offense and #3 in defense according to Versus. Kansas City, however, has earned a mediocre (and shocking) 16th place offensive ranking in the NFL, despite being the 2nd ranked defensive team. There are 14 NFL teams which average more points per game than Kansas City.

Fact 2: SF Holds Superior Record Against Winning Teams

When facing teams with winning records in the 2023-2024 season, Kansas City's performance currently stands at a mediocre 6-4, whereas San Francisco impressively commands a 10-4 record against such formidable opponents.

Fact 3: SF Scores More Points than KC

San Francisco averages nearly a touchdown more per game than Kansas City. The 49ers have put up 28.9 points per game (PPG) this season while the Chiefs have only scored 22.1. It's also worth noting that Kansas City has faced slightly easier opponents with an average rank of 17, compared to San Francisco's 14.4 average opponent rank.

The Case for Kansas City

Fact 4: The Contenders React Differently Against Top Defenses

In matchups against top-tier defenses, defined as teams having roughly a 90+ offensive rating, Kansas City maintains its average PPG of 22.1. San Francisco's PPG, however, drops to 23.25 against top-tier defenses, a notable decline from their season average of 28.9. This indicates that the Chiefs are more likely to play consistently against the 49er’s #3 ranked defense, while the 49ers might struggle to score their usual PPG against the Chiefs’ #2 ranked defense. Keep in mind, this observation is already implicitly factored into the Versus score prediction, as Versus is only predicting a 22-point output by the 49ers on Sunday, well below their average PPG of 28.9.

The following tables show each team's points output against the top-tier defenses they played this season and post-season.

Fact 5: Results Vary in Past Encounters with #1 Baltimore Ravens

On Christmas Day 2023, San Francisco faced off against the top-ranked Baltimore Ravens, falling by two touchdowns with a final score of 19-33. Conversely, Kansas City beat the Ravens in their recent matchup on January 28, 2024, clinching the victory with a score of 17-10, and defying Versus' projection of a 10-point Ravens advantage. Transitively, this implies KC > Baltimore > SF.

In similar vein, both contenders played Minnesota this season at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis during the month of October. Kansas City defeated Minnesota 27-20 while San Francisco lost to the Vikings 17-22. So again, transitively speaking, is it fair to assume KC > Minn > SF? It's certainly another data point to consider.

Fact 6: The ATS Performance Comparison Reveals Interesting Trends

From a betting perspective, Kansas City boasts a 9-8 against-the-spread (ATS) record during the regular season and an impeccable 3-0 ATS streak in the playoffs. San Francisco mirrors a 9-8 ATS performance in the regular season but has just a 0-2 ATS record in the playoffs. So the underdog in the Super Bowl has covered every spread in the playoffs and the favorite in the Super Bowl has failed to cover the spread in the playoffs.

Fact 7: Neither Contender Has Lost When Versus Predicts Them to Lose

Reviewing Versus Sports Simulator's “straight up” prediction accuracy for the 2023-2024 season, Kansas City's overall prediction accuracy stands at 11-9 (55%), with a 65% success rate when Versus picks them to win. Versus fares slightly better with San Francisco, with an overall accuracy of 12-7 (63%) and a 71% success rate when Versus predicts their victory.

However, both teams have won every game when Versus had them as the underdog. Versus had the Chiefs as the underdog in 3 games this season and the Chiefs won all 3 games. Similarly, the 49ers were Versus underdogs in two games this season and won both. So for these two teams, Versus is 0-5 this season when predicting a defeat. This statistic favors Kansas City to win the game outright.

Opinion: Personal Super Bowl Prediction Based on Analysis

As the founder of Versus Sports Simulator, my goal has always been to put the tools and data into the hands of customers to help them make informed betting decisions. At the end of the day, no computer algorithm or human is going to be right 100% of the time. The best we can do is consider the facts from all angles, do a little homework, and make an educated guess.

I've done my homework for Super Bowl LVIII and have examined the data points from the season meticulously. While the simulator currently favors San Francisco to cover the 2.5-point spread, my personal assessment is a little bit different. Despite the numbers leaning towards the 49ers, I cannot overlook the myriad of factors favoring the Kansas City Chiefs. And with Patrick Mahomes in the game, it’s really hard to bet against him. He has been the X-factor in a number of Conference Championship games and Super Bowls already. In fact, he’s already appeared in three Super Bowls in six years, winning two of them. I’m a big fan of Brock Purdy, but this is his first experience in the big game. I lean towards Kansas City's seasoned experience and Mahomes' proven prowess to once again clinch victory on the grandest stage of them all.