Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions in the NFC Divisional Round

By: Jonathan Howard, Staff Writer
January 17, 2024

Breaking Down the Commanders vs. Lions NFC Divisional Round Matchup

After riding the high of its first playoff win since 2005, the Washington Commanders head to Ford Field to take on the heavily favored Detroit Lions in a NFC Divisional Round clash. The Lions are hefty 9.5-point favorites heading into Saturday night’s kick, with the over/under coming in at 55.5. While the odds heavily favor the home team, here are five reasons why Washington could not only cover the spread – but win outright.

Five Reasons the Commanders Could Upset the Lions

1. No Kevin Zeitler for Detroit

The least penalized member of the Lions starting offensive line, Zeitler has been a stalwart up front for Detroit all season. The right guard played and started in 16 of 17 regular season games but has been ruled out ahead of Saturday’s contest after suffering a hamstring injury. Rookie Christian Mahogany is slated to make his second career start in his place. The majority of Washington’s pass rush comes off the edge, whether its Dante Fowler Jr., Dorance Armstrong or Frankie Luvu; but if Mahogany shows weakness, it could allow Jonathan Allen to slip into the backfield on the rush. Additionally, added pressure from Washington’s line and linebackers could help shut down the running game in the middle and force Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to find their yards out wide.

2. The Lions Do Have a Weakness

There aren’t a lot, but if you’re looking for ways for Washington to pull off an upset, this is a big one. Detroit has allowed 454 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season, fourth and third worst in the NFL. Detroit’s week 15 loss to Buffalo in which Josh Allen rushed for 68 yards and a pair of scores could be the blueprint for Jayden Daniels, whose 891 rushing yards rank second amongst quarterbacks behind Lamar Jackson’s 915 yards.

3. Austin Ekeler is Back and Useful

The best thing about the eighth-year veteran is that he doesn’t have to accumulate statistics to be effective. His mere presence is going to help his teammates. Don’t get me wrong, Brian Robinson has been solid at running back for Washington, but there is no denying that Ekeler is the much more skilled receiver out of the backfield. Ekeler, who finished the regular season with 35 catches for 366 yards despite missing six games, will give Detroit an extra piece to account for every time he is one the field. Dyami Brown had a massive game last week for Washington and Zach Ertz had his best season since 2019, but the fact remains that Terry McLaurin is still the only receiving threat that Detroit will heavily game plan for. Ekeler rounding back into form and game shape gives the Lions something extra to think about, which can open everyone else up.

4. The Dans are Alike

Dan Quinn and Dan Campbell are both unafraid of going for it on fourth down. Detroit has one of the scariest offenses in the NFL and Washington one of the league’s shakier defenses. On paper, the concept of the Commanders having to defend the Lions for more downs than necessary is a losing proposition. This is probably a large reach, but the fact that Washington employs the same type of strategy in late down situations as Detroit at least gives the Commanders some insight into what it will be facing. Additionally, putting the same sort of pressure on Detroit could (again, large reach here) cause a crack in the armor. This is the old “basketball teams that press don’t like to be pressed” theory.

5. Jayden Daniels

Quite simply, Daniels has been as cool under pressure as any quarterback in the league this season and has only gotten better as his ribs have become healthier. He’s not only the clear favorite for Rookie of the Year, I think there are easy arguments for him to at least be in the conversation for league MVP. If the game is close with time running out, Commanders fans have every reason to believe he can lead them to victory. If Washington is going to pull the upset, Daniels will be reason 1A.

Conclusion: Can the Commanders Defy the Odds?

The Washington Commanders face an uphill battle against the heavily favored Detroit Lions, but as we've explored, there are compelling reasons to believe an upset is possible. From exploiting Detroit’s vulnerabilities to relying on the talent and composure of Jayden Daniels, Washington has the tools to defy the odds and keep its playoff dream alive. The absence of Kevin Zeitler, the potential impact of Austin Ekeler, and the insight from Dan Quinn’s strategic approach all add layers of intrigue to this NFC Divisional Round matchup.

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