FCS Football Showdown: Idaho Vandals vs. Montana State Bobcats

By: Steve Pugh, Founder, Versus Sports Simulator
October 10, 2024

Game Preview

The Idaho Vandals (4-2, 66.7%) are set to clash with the undefeated Montana State Bobcats (6-0, 100%) on Saturday, October 12, 2024. This marks the first time Montana State has started 6-0 since 2012, adding even more excitement to an already highly anticipated matchup. The game will take place at Bobcat Stadium and will be nationally televised on ESPN2, with kickoff scheduled for 8:15 p.m. Both teams have showcased strong performances this season, and fans can expect an electrifying contest with significant implications for the Big Sky Conference standings.

Team Overviews

Idaho Vandals

The Vandals have demonstrated resilience this season, currently holding a 4-2 record. Their season kicked off with a challenging matchup against the now #1 ranked Oregon Ducks (5-0), where they lost by just 10 points, showcasing their capability to compete against elite FBS talent. They also played a tightly contested game against FCS #10 UC-Davis, losing by only 2 points on the road. These performances illustrate Idaho's competitive spirit and ability to challenge strong opponents. With an average of 24.7 points per game and a solid defense allowing just 19.8 points per game, the Vandals have shown they can score effectively while keeping games close against tougher competition.

Key Statistics:

• Best Win: Against FCS #17 Abilene Christian (4-2, #144 overall)

• Opponent Record: 20-13 (Average Opponent Rank: 169.2 across all divisions)

• Overall Rating: 97 (A+)

• Power Rating: 97 (A+)

• Offensive Rating: 91 (A-)

• Defensive Rating: 98 (A+)

• Current Streak: Won 1 (4-1 in the last 5 games)

• Strength of Schedule: Current Schedule Rating: 97 (A+)

Montana State Bobcats

Montana State has been dominant this season, remaining undefeated with a perfect 6-0 record. They boast a high-powered offense that averages 41.8 points per game, placing them 6th in the FCS among only nine teams that have managed to average over 40 points per game this season. Their defense is equally impressive, allowing only 18.2 points per game. Notably, their wins include a decisive 55-17 victory against Northern Colorado, showcasing their ability to dominate weaker opponents while solidifying their status as a formidable contender in the FCS.

Key Statistics:

• Best Win: Against FCS #20 Idaho State (3-3, #168 overall)

• Opponent Record: 9-25 (Average Opponent Rank: 393.5 across all divisions)

• Overall Rating: 98 (A+)

• Power Rating: 97 (A)

• Offensive Rating: 95 (A)

• Defensive Rating: 96 (A)

• Current Streak: Won 6 (Undefeated this season)

• Strength of Schedule: Current Schedule Rating: 66 (D)

Key Differences Between the Teams

1. Scoring Efficiency:

   • Idaho: 24.7 points per game, with a points allowed average of 19.8.

   • Montana State: A standout 41.8 points per game, with only 18.2 points allowed.

2. Strength of Schedule:

   • Idaho's average opponent rank across all divisions is significantly higher (169.2) compared to Montana State's (393.5), indicating Idaho has faced tougher competition overall.

3. Records Against Winning Teams:

   • Idaho: 2-2 against teams with winning records.

   • Montana State: 2-0 against teams with winning records.

4. Recent Form:

   • Idaho: 4-1 in their five FCS games, with their loss at #10 UC-Davis by only 2 points.

   • Montana State: Perfect 6-0 this season, dominating opponents both offensively and defensively.

Analyzing Offensive Performance Against Defensive Strength

To assess the scoring potential of both Montana State and Idaho, we have compiled the below data that depicts the number of points scored against the quality of their competition, focusing on how each team has performed against opposing defenses. Each table highlights the points scored by a team alongside the corresponding defensive rankings and ratings of their opponents, providing a clear view of how effective each offense has been when facing varying levels of defensive strength. The tables are sortable by clicking the table header.

The corresponding scatter plots for both teams visualize the relationship between points scored and the defensive ratings of their opponents. Each plot features a regression line that illustrates trends in scoring relative to defensive performance. By hovering over the regression line at the x-value corresponding to an upcoming opponent's defensive rating, one can estimate how many points each team is likely to score in their forthcoming matchup. This analytical approach reveals the offensive capabilities of Montana State and Idaho, showcasing how their historical performance might be used to predict how many points they will score against each other.

History of the Series

Montana State and Idaho have a long history that dates back to 1923, when the two programs first met on the football field. The rivalry continued for several decades, particularly when both teams were members of the Big Sky Conference from 1963 to 1995. During this time, Idaho often dominated the series, especially in the 1980s and early 1990s.

However, after the 1995 season, the rivalry was put on hold. Idaho moved up to the FBS level (formerly Division I-A) and joined the Big West Conference, while Montana State remained in FCS (formerly Division I-AA) as a member of the Big Sky Conference. The two teams did not face each other for over two decades due to Idaho’s shift to the FBS and their different conference alignments.

The rivalry resumed in 2016 before Idaho’s eventual return to the Big Sky Conference and FCS football, where Montana State had remained. Since 2016, the teams have faced off four times, with the series tied 2-2. Montana State won the matchups in 2018 and 2021, while Idaho claimed victories in 2016 and 2023. These games have often been competitive, with close scores and both teams showing their strengths on the field.

Idaho’s return to the FCS in 2018 helped to revive this regional rivalry, making it once again a key contest within the Big Sky Conference.

Key Observations

The table below summarizes the outcomes of the 4-game series this century. We'll also highlight a few key observations:

• Neither team has eclipsed 24 points or scored less than 13 points in the series

• Every game was decided by 7 points or less and 3 games decided by a field goal or less

• The home team has won every game

• In the 3 games that Versus predicted correctly, the score was much closer than what Versus predicted. Versus predicted 17 and 24 point wins for MTSU in 2018 and 2021, respectively.

• The series is tied 2-2

Versus Sports Simulator's Prediction

Versus Sports Simulator is currently in its 14th season of publishing computer-generated predictions for College Football, dating back to the 2011-2012 season. Below is the overall prediction accuracy for both teams as well as a look at how Versus has fared in the head-to-head matchup.

Team	Overall Accuracy	When Picked to Win	When Picked to Lose
Montana State Summary since 9/1/2011	123-35 (78%)	87-16 (84%)	36-19 (65%)
Idaho Summary since 9/1/2011	120-34 (78%)	39-16 (71%)	81-18 (82%)

Summary since 9/1/2016

• Versus overall prediction accuracy in series: 3-1 (75%)
• Accuracy when Versus picked Montana St to win: 2-1 (67%)
• Accuracy when Versus picked Idaho to win: 1-0 (100%)

Prediction

While the Versus Sports Simulator model doesn't factor in historical data from previous seasons, it's predicting a final score that is very similar to the game outcomes from the recent past. Both teams should score in the 20s, and the game will be decided by less than a field goal. Montana State should be able to pull off the win at home.

For a lot more stats and analysis, try out our state-of-the-art game simulator. There, you can customize game simulations by adjusting offensive and defensive sliders and also introduce some degree of random chaos into the score outcomes.

Conclusion

As the Idaho Vandals prepare to face the Montana State Bobcats, the stakes are high. Both teams showcase impressive defenses, but the apparent disparity in offensive firepower favors Montana State. However, Idaho's offense may be more potent than it seems when considering their tougher competition. While Montana State has dominated weaker opponents, Idaho's experience against higher-ranked teams suggests they could surprise with a more effective offensive performance. This matchup promises to be an exciting contest with potential playoff implications, as both teams aim to assert their dominance in the FCS landscape.