From Champions to Underdogs: Ferris State's Unexpected Journey in the 2023 College Football Season

By: Steve Pugh, Founder, Versus Sports Simulator
October 2, 2023

The Ferris State Bulldogs are back-to-back national champions in Division II college football. They defeated Valdosta State 58-17 in 2021 and Colorado School of Mines 41-14 in 2022. Both were notable blowouts from a championship game perspective, where one would typically expect more competitive matchups.

But this year, in 2023, the Bulldogs are currently ranked 13th in Versus Sports Simulator’s D2 College Football rankings for Week 5. In fact, after whooping Northern Michigan 78-3 on September 30, Ferris State actually dropped from #4 to #13 in the rankings. How could that be? Let’s take a close look at what’s going on here and assess what the remainder of the season could look like for the Bulldogs.

Who Has Ferris State Played?

At 3-1, Ferris State hasn’t logged any quality wins. Their only loss was a close one to FCS juggernaut Montana (17-10). But the Bulldogs’ three wins came against D2 teams, each with losing records and a combined total record of 3-12. Their best win came against Ashland, who is currently ranked #334 across all college football divisions. When compared to the teams ranked above Ferris State in the Week 5 D2 rankings, the Bulldogs are the only team whose opponents have totalled less than 9 wins (see the table below). Furthermore, Ferris State’s “quality loss” to an FCS team was dampened severely when Montana was unexpectedly beaten by Northern Arizona (1-4) in Week 4. With that in mind, even the three one-loss teams ranked ahead of Ferris State in the D2 rankings have a higher quality loss than Ferris State.

Why Did Ferris State Drop 9 Spots in Week 5?

Versus Sports Simulator produces several different rankings for teams, including performance rankings, power rankings, offensive and defensive rankings, and strength of schedule rankings, among others. So what is performance ranking? Think of it as a resume or a report card. Performance ranking measures past performance of a team based on who they’ve played and, more importantly, who they’ve defeated. Teams are rewarded a higher performance rating (and, hence, a higher ordinal ranking) when they defeat higher quality teams. Conversely, a team’s performance rating/ranking can take a big hit when they play poor quality teams. Below is a chart of Ferris State’s results so far in 2023.

Ferris State’s performance ranking dropped from #4 to #13 after Week 5, despite the fact that they defeated the Northern Michigan Wildcats by a score of 78-3. This is because Northern Michigan, at 0-5 on the season, was a poor quality opponent. Not only have the Wildcats not won any games, they were even defeated by 31 points during Week 3 by a lower divisional opponent (D3’s Wisconsin-La Crosse).

It should be noted, however, that the 78 point outburst was indeed enough to improve Ferris State’s power ranking from #10 to #9 at the D2 level. A team’s power ranking is a forward-looking metric that indicates how the team is expected to perform against future opponents based on how well they played past opponents.

What’s the Future Hold for Ferris State?

Despite the weak schedule and one loss to an FCS foe, Ferris State’s future still looks promising in the 2023 season. The Bulldogs are expected to win all of their remaining games easily, with the exception of fellow GLIAC school Grand Valley State. That game, which is a home game for the Lakers, is scheduled for October 14th and Versus Sports Simulator is currently giving Ferris State a 32% chance of winning it. With that said, the Bulldogs have a 25% probability of winning all of their remaining games (including Grand Valley State).

Conclusion

A team’s performance ranking can ebb and flow throughout the season. It’s not what happens week to week that really matters, though. It’s how a team performs throughout the entire season and where they stand at the end of it. With a 25% chance of winning out, it is entirely possible that Ferris State could find themselves ranked in the Division II Top 5 by the end of the season and still have a great chance at a three-peat.