Super Bowl LIX: Philadelphia Has the "It" Factor

By: Jonathan Howard, Staff Writer
February 4, 2025

We’ve finally made it to the final week of the NFL season. Party menus are being planned, plenty of beer is being purchased, and seemingly everyone outside the states of Missouri and Kansas has turned into a Philadelphia Eagles fan, at least for the duration of Super Bowl LIX.

You can’t blame the average sports fan for cheering on the Eagles. While people love to look back at dynasties and talk about what made teams great, they rarely like seeing those teams become legendary in real time. In today’s NFL, you can call it Tom Brady syndrome. The more he won, the more people outside of New England hated him, Bill Belichick and the Patriots. The same can be said now for Patrick Mahomes, head coach Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs, who have a chance to make history as the league’s first back-to-back-to-back champion.

Except, No They Won’t

It’s ironic that the Eagles, thanks in large part to Nick Foles and the “Philly Special,” last won the Super Bowl against the Patriots – sandwiched around two other New England victories. They’ll once again have the opportunity to squash the hopes of a massive Super Bowl winning streak this Sunday in New Orleans. And while FanDuel currently has Philadelphia as a 1.5-point underdogs against Kansas City, I like the Eagles to redeem themselves from the Super Bowl LVII loss that began the Chiefs’ quest for a “three peat.” [Writer’s note: Do I now owe Pat Riley money? I hope not.]

Why Will Philadelphia Win?

When combing through season statistics, it’s difficult to find something that definitely points in the favor of Philadelphia. Philadelphia and Kansas City are No. 2 and No. 4 respectively in both total and scoring defense. The Chiefs have an extremely strong run defense, which isn’t likely to let Saquon Barkley run wild like he did against the Commanders. Despite having a perceived down season on his own, Mahomes still ranked in the top 10 among quarterbacks in yards, touchdowns, completion percentage and QBR. While Hurts hasn’t been as prolific, Barkley has been the most dominant running back all season with the playoffs being no exception.

In this case, my reason for liking Philadelphia comes down to the old fashioned eye test. Kansas City looked OK at best Houston, and defeated Buffalo in the fashion it has grown accustomed to this year – with fourth quarter theatrics. Meanwhile, the Eagles have flown through the playoffs – leading for roughly 80 percent of the three games they’ve won on the way to the Super Bowl. In a tournament format, give me the team that’s running hot with the player that’s playing the best. Between the two teams, that’s Philadelphia, and that player is Saquon Barkley.

This is not to say that Philadelphia will run through this game in similar fashion to the previous three. The Packers, Rams and Commanders are not the Chiefs. Kansas City has made an art of finding ways to win games in which it hasn’t been the best team that day. But on Sunday, the Eagles will cover the spread (-115) and win straight up (+102).

What Does the Simulator Say?

Versus Sports Simulator loves the Eagles as much as I do, assigning the Eagles a 6.49-point advantage, and a winner in 74 percent of simulations.

Other Plays I Like

Anytime touchdowns: Jalen Hurts (-115), A.J. Brown (+180), Isaiah Pacheco (+350)

Most receiving yards: A.J. Brown (+190)

A.J. Brown 70+ receiving yards (-114)

Saquon Barkley 90+ rushing yards (-250)

Patrick Mahomes 225+ passing yards (-220)

Alternate spread: Eagles -4.5 (+182)

Wrapping Up

In the end, the Eagles are looking hot, and it’s hard to argue against them after their dominant playoff run. Sure, Kansas City has Patrick Mahomes, but the Eagles have a balanced team, solid defense, and the right momentum heading into the big game. With Saquon Barkley leading the way and Hurts keeping things steady, I think they’ll cover the spread and take home the W. The simulator loves them too, so let’s hope they back it up on Sunday.