NFL Wrap: Will Teams Get Sucked Into Over Valuing Running Backs?

By: Jonathan Howard, Staff Writer
March 2, 2025

With the Super Bowl in the rearview mirror, all NFL eyes now turn to the off-season where shoring up outstanding contracts and player acquisition through free agency and April’s draft will be at the top of general manager priority boards. Fresh off Saquon Barkley’s historic season in which he set the NFL record for most rushing yards in a total season (including both regular season and playoffs) and walked away with the AP Offensive Player of the Year award, team’s will undoubtedly see the importance of having a running back that can not only carry a workload – but also command the respect of opposing defenses.

The NFL has always been and always will be a copycat league. When one team does something that works, others will forever follow – for better or for worse. When the Miami Dolphins broke out the wildcat offense in 2008, teams all over the league started adding in packages for their running backs to take snaps. When Chip Kelly brought the RPO to the NFL in 2013, offensive coordinators started updating their playbooks. While having a workhorse running back certainly isn’t a new concept in the NFL – it has largely been replaced by a two, and sometimes even three back system to keep players fresh and utilize their best skill set for specific packages. The success of Saquon Barkley this season could cause teams to rethink this method. But is it smart?

Current First Round Running Backs since 2015

Since 2015, fourteen running backs have been taken in the first round of the NFL Draft.

• 2023: Bijan Robinson, Atlanta – 1x Pro Bowl; Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit – 2x Pro Bowl

• 2021: Najee Harris, Pittsburgh – 1x Pro Bowl; Travis Etienne, Jacksonville

• 2020: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City (currently New Orleans)

• 2019: Josh Jacobs, Oakland (currently Green Bay) – 3x Pro Bowl

• 2018: Saquon Barkley, New York Giants (currently Philadelphia) – 3x Pro Bowl, AP Player of the Year; Rashad Penny, Seattle (currently Philadelphia); Sony Michel, New England (currently L.A. Rams)

• 2017: Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville; Christian McCaffrey, Carolina (currently San Francisco) – 3x Pro Bowl

• 2016: Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas (currently L.A. Chargers) – 3x Pro Bowl

• 2015: Todd Gurley, L.A. Rams – 3x Pro Bowl; Melvin Gordon, L.A. Chargers – 2x Pro Bowl

Of the 14 players on this list there are 22 combined Pro Bowls and four Super Bowl titles.

But Was the Investment Worth It?

On the surface, asking was it worth drafting a player like Barkley or a prime Christian McCaffrey seems silly. They are game-changing players years after being drafted. The draft picks from 2023, Robinson and Gibbs, have already proved to be invaluable members of their team’s offenses. But consider this – of those 14 players, only four of them are currently, or retired with, the team that drafted them in the first round – and those are the four most recently drafted players. While successful while healthy in New York, Barkley had his most meaningful season as a pro after finding a new home. McCaffrey spent multiple years as a Lamborghini surrounded by Toyota Corollas in Carolina. Leonard Fournette spent his most meaningful years in Jacksonville, but after his rookie season didn’t get close to a Super Bowl again until he moved to Tampa Bay.

First round picks are meant to be building blocks – the foundation of a franchise. The problem with running backs is due to their high volume usage in multiple phases of the game on offense (and sometimes special teams), the injury bug often becomes a problem, and multiple are needed to complete a season. Barkley was the best offensive player for the Giants when healthy. McCaffrey was the best for Carolina when healthy. But with so little talent around them in their final years there, could it be said that their draft positions were ultimately worth it? Every pick is a gamble – but the odds of your first round running back selection being around to build the franchise into a contender seem slimmer than other positions.

The 2025 Draft – What Players Will We Ask the Same Questions About?

With the 2025 NFL Combine currently underway, there are currently four running backs who are likely, or have a chance to work their way into the first round of the draft:

1. Ashton Jeanty, Boise State

2. Omarion Hampton, North Carolina

3. Dylan Sampson, Tennessee

4. TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State

Final Thoughts

The debate over the value of first-round running backs is not going away anytime soon. While players like Barkley and McCaffrey have proven their worth, the short shelf life and high injury risk at the position make it a tough investment for teams looking to build long-term contenders. As the 2025 draft approaches, general managers will once again have to decide whether these talented prospects are worth the risk—or if history suggests they should look elsewhere for their next franchise cornerstone.