NFL Conference Championship Betting Tips: AFC & NFC Matchups for the 2025 Season

By: Jonathan Howard, Staff Writer
January 24, 2025

AFC Championship: Like Buffalo? Here’s How to Bet

As of this article, FanDuel has Buffalo as a 1.5-point road underdog and +108 on the money line. With such a slim line, if you like the Bills to repeat week 11’s results, where they beat the Chiefs 31-20, it’s better to take the better odds and roll with the money line. If you’re going to do that, you might be tempted to double up by taking the over portion of the 47.5-point over/under. After all, Buffalo has eclipsed this figure nine times this season, including in the regular season win over Kansas City, and in total has been part of games that hit the over 11 times. But the Bills have notably gone under in both playoff games so far and have merely hit the over three of seven times against playoff teams. All four misses came in games against fellow playoff teams with top 15 defenses. While the Bills defeated the Chiefs at home with a 51-point total, it’s hard to overlook these numbers with bigger stakes and the game at Arrowhead Stadium. Overall, the under could very well be the better play.

AFC Championship: Like Kansas City? Here’s How to Bet

If you’re betting Kansas City, you’re going to take the 1.5-point spread, which has slightly better odds than the money line (-112 vs -126) and the under. Kansas City games have gone over 47.5 just three times this season, including the loss to Buffalo. Games involving the Chiefs have gone under in six of their last seven appearances, including their last three games.

In Summary: If you’re looking for a shootout, this likely isn’t going to be your game. Kansas City at home in the playoffs is a different beast than early in the regular season. If Buffalo is going to win this one, it will slug it out. Versus Sports Simulator agrees with the FanDuel line at 47.5, and even likes the Bills to win at a 63 percent clip. But if the Bills are going to do it, they’ll need to make sure to take care of business in the fourth quarter just like it did in week 11. Kansas City has trailed in the fourth quarter six times this season and won four of those games.

NFC Championship: Like Washington? Here’s How to Bet

Washington’s offense is humming, averaging 31.4 points since week 16’s 36-33 victory over Philadelphia. Additionally, the Commanders have been adept at winning close games, winning five games in a row by six points or less before last week’s 14-point win over Detroit. Both factors are interesting – but I like Washington’s ability to play in a close game more than anything. FanDuel currently has the Commanders as a 6.5-point road underdog. Staying inside of a touchdown of Philadelphia doesn’t seem like a big problem for the road team now as it may have earlier in the season, when the Eagles beat the Commanders 26-18.

NFC Championship: Like Philadelphia? Here’s How to Bet

Despite Washington’s success, it’s easy to see the tear that Saquon Barkley is on and combine it with the Commanders’ porous rush defense and use it as an excuse to smash the over on the 47.5-point over/under and an Eagles cover. Let’s pump the brakes on that. Instead, let’s focus on Barkley himself. FanDuel has his rushing yards prop at 125.5 yards, with odds at -114 in both directions. Barkley averaged 148 yards against the Commanders this season, and while their defense is healthier, it’s still very susceptible. Barkley hitting the over is likely – and paired with an anytime touchdown (currently -250) – is a very safe and low risk, albeit low reward (+123) play. For a slightly riskier, but better reward play, go for the alt rushing yards line of 150+ for Barkley, which yields +180 odds. He’s hit 150 yards six times this season, including three of his last four.

In Summary: Versus Sports Simulator likes a slightly higher point total, predicting just over 50. I can’t blame it, and I can’t blame the thought process of anyone who wants to take Philadelphia, the points and the over. But much like Kansas City, Washington has shown a knack for making the fourth quarter interesting over the last month and change. Regardless of the over/under, I like Washington to cover – and for Barkley to run wild for Philly.

Key Takeaways for Conference Championship Sunday

• Buffalo vs. Kansas City: The Bills are slight underdogs, but taking them on the money line offers better value. Consider betting the under on the 47.5-point total due to recent trends in games involving playoff-caliber defenses.

• Kansas City’s Edge: The Chiefs' recent games have leaned heavily under the point total. Don’t expect that to be any different on Sunday. Betting them to cover the 1.5-point spread might be the safest play given their playoff record at home.

• Washington’s Resilience: The Commanders have excelled in close games and covering spreads. Betting them to stay within 6.5 points is a reasonable choice.

• Philadelphia’s Star Power: Saquon Barkley is a key factor. His rushing yard props and anytime touchdown odds present safe betting opportunities with solid returns.