7 Statistics You Need to Pay Attention to in NFL Betting

By: Roger Wright, Guest Contributor
July 3, 2024

Betting on NFL games can be both thrilling and profitable, but success hinges on understanding key statistics that influence outcomes. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or a newcomer, knowing which stats to focus on can make a significant difference in your betting strategy. Here, we'll explore seven crucial statistics that you should always consider before placing your bets.

Team Offense and Defense Rankings

Team rankings in offense and defense provide a broad picture of a team's overall performance. Offense rankings highlight a team's ability to score points, while defense rankings show how well a team can prevent the opposition from scoring. Examining these rankings can help you predict potential outcomes more accurately.

Points Per Game (PPG)

Points per game is a straightforward but vital stat. It tells you how many points a team scores on average. High PPG can indicate a strong offense, whereas low PPG may signal offensive struggles.

Yards Per Game (YPG)

Yards per game gives insight into how effectively a team moves the ball. Teams with high YPG often have dynamic offenses capable of making big plays. Conversely, low YPG can suggest issues with the offensive line or quarterback play.

Turnover Differential

Turnover differential measures the difference between turnovers committed and turnovers forced by a team. A positive turnover differential often correlates with winning teams, as it indicates they protect the ball well and capitalize on opponents' mistakes.

Interceptions and Fumbles

Interceptions and fumbles are critical components of turnover differential. Teams that excel in forcing turnovers can shift momentum and change the course of a game. Conversely, teams prone to committing turnovers often struggle to maintain consistency.

Third-Down Conversion Rate

The third-down conversion rate indicates how often a team successfully converts third downs into first downs. This stat reflects a team's efficiency and ability to sustain drives, which is essential for controlling the game's tempo and keeping the opposing defense on the field.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Head-to-head matchups provide historical context for how teams fare against each other. Some teams have historical advantages or disadvantages against specific opponents due to coaching styles, player matchups, or other factors. Reviewing past matchups can reveal patterns that might not be apparent from current season statistics alone. For example, when looking at the Los Angeles Rams season odds, it's essential to consider how they have performed against their divisional rivals in previous seasons. This insight can help you make more informed bets based on historical trends and rivalries.

Red Zone Efficiency

Red zone efficiency shows how effectively a team scores touchdowns when inside the opponent's 20-yard line. High efficiency in the red zone can be a sign of a well-coached team with strong play-calling and execution under pressure.

Touchdowns vs. Field Goals

Examining the ratio of touchdowns to field goals in the red zone can provide further insights. Teams that settle for field goals rather than touchdowns may struggle to close out games against high-scoring opponents.

Penalty Yards

Penalty yards can significantly impact a game's outcome. Teams that commit fewer penalties often maintain better field position and avoid costly mistakes. Conversely, teams with high penalty yards can self-sabotage, leading to missed opportunities and extended drives for their opponents.

Points Allowed Per Game

Points allowed per game is a crucial defensive statistic that indicates how many points a team concedes on average. A lower points-allowed figure usually signifies a strong defense capable of limiting opponents' scoring opportunities. Conversely, a high points-allowed average can be a red flag, indicating defensive vulnerabilities that opposing teams can exploit.

Defensive Consistency

Examining points allowed per game over several weeks can highlight a team's defensive consistency. Teams that consistently allow fewer points are generally more reliable bets, especially against high-scoring opponents. This stat helps you gauge whether a team's defense can hold up under pressure and maintain performance throughout the season.

Conclusion

Successful NFL betting requires more than gut feelings and luck. By paying close attention to these seven statistics—team offense and defense rankings, turnover differential, third-down conversion rate, red zone efficiency, penalty yards, injuries and player availability, and head-to-head matchups—you can make more informed decisions. Understanding and analyzing these stats will give you an edge, increasing your chances of making profitable bets throughout the NFL season.