FCS Football Championship Predictions: Montana State Bobcats vs. North Dakota State Bison
Game Preview
The stage is set for an epic showdown as the undefeated Montana State Bobcats (15-0), the nation’s top-ranked team, take on the formidable North Dakota State Bison (13-2), the No. 2 seed, in the 2024-2025 FCS Championship Game. This highly anticipated matchup will take place Monday night, January 6, 2025, at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas, with kickoff scheduled for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. Both teams have dominated the season, and their clash promises to deliver a thrilling conclusion to the college football season.
Game Prediction
Cutting straight to the chase, Versus Sports Simulator has been predicting a Bison win in this game for weeks. The predicted margin of victory has been getting progressively smaller throughout the playoffs, however. According to our prediction model which has been in use since 2011, North Dakota State is favored by about 2½ points and has a 56% probability of taking home the championship.
#1 |
Montana St (15-0)
|
26.22 (44%) |
vs #2 |
North Dakota St (13-2)
|
28.84 (56%) |
Points Spread Total Points |
2.62 55.06 |
However, we’ve been working on some new models that predict the number of points a team will score against a particular caliber of defense. These models tell a different story - one strongly in favor of the Montana State Bobcats. Read on to discover the other side of the story!
Analyzing Offensive Performance Against Defensive Strength
To assess the scoring potential of both Montana State and North Dakota State, we have compiled the below data that depicts the number of points scored against the quality of their competition, focusing on how each team has performed against opposing defenses. Each table highlights the points scored by a team alongside the corresponding defensive rankings and ratings of their opponents, providing a clear view of how effective each offense has been when facing varying levels of defensive strength. The tables are sortable by clicking the table header.
The corresponding scatter plots for both teams visualize the relationship between points scored and the defensive ratings of their opponents. Each plot features a regression line that illustrates trends in scoring relative to defensive performance. By hovering over the regression line at the x-value corresponding to an upcoming opponent's defensive rating, one can estimate how many points each team is likely to score in their forthcoming matchup. This analytical approach reveals the offensive capabilities of the Bobcats and Bison, showcasing how their historical performance might be used to predict how many points they will score against each other.
Montana State
Points scored against opposing FCS defenses
| Opponent | Game Date | DefRank | DefRating | Points Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Dakota | 2024-12-21 | 4 | 98.1 | 31 |
| Idaho | 2024-10-12 | 7 | 97.2 | 38 |
| Idaho | 2024-12-13 | 7 | 97.2 | 52 |
| UC-Davis | 2024-11-16 | 9 | 96.6 | 30 |
| Tennessee-Martin | 2024-12-07 | 18 | 93.8 | 49 |
| Montana | 2024-11-23 | 19 | 93.5 | 34 |
| Maine | 2024-09-07 | 64 | 79.8 | 41 |
| Sacramento St | 2024-11-09 | 75 | 76.5 | 49 |
| Northern Colorado | 2024-10-05 | 85 | 73.4 | 55 |
| Eastern Washington | 2024-11-02 | 89 | 72.2 | 42 |
| Portland St | 2024-10-19 | 92 | 71.3 | 44 |
| Utah Tech | 2024-08-31 | 101 | 68.5 | 31 |
| Idaho St | 2024-09-28 | 104 | 67.6 | 37 |
| Mercyhurst | 2024-09-21 | 120 | 62.7 | 52 |
| North Dakota St | 2025-01-06 | 2 | 98.7 | TBD |
Summary: Montana State has demonstrated remarkable consistency on offense this season, excelling against a variety of defensive opponents. The Bobcats have shown their ability to score effectively, whether facing top-tier or mid-tier defenses. Their playoff performance has been particularly impressive, highlighted by a dominant 52-point effort against Idaho, which boasted the nation’s seventh-ranked defense, in December. On average, Montana State has scored 37.75 points per game against top-10 defenses and 39 points per game against top-20 defenses, showcasing their offensive firepower in the most challenging matchups.
North Dakota State
Points scored against opposing FCS defenses
| Opponent | Game Date | DefRank | DefRating | Points Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Dakota St | 2024-10-19 | 1 | 99 | 13 |
| South Dakota St | 2024-12-21 | 1 | 99 | 28 |
| South Dakota | 2024-11-23 | 4 | 98.1 | 28 |
| Mercer | 2024-12-14 | 13 | 95.3 | 31 |
| Illinois St | 2024-09-28 | 14 | 95 | 42 |
| East Tennessee St | 2024-09-14 | 16 | 94.4 | 38 |
| Towson | 2024-09-21 | 26 | 91.4 | 41 |
| Southern Illinois | 2024-10-12 | 27 | 91.1 | 24 |
| Tennessee St | 2024-09-07 | 39 | 87.4 | 52 |
| North Dakota | 2024-10-05 | 43 | 86.2 | 41 |
| Missouri St | 2024-11-16 | 48 | 84.7 | 59 |
| Abilene Christian | 2024-12-07 | 59 | 81.3 | 51 |
| Northern Iowa | 2024-11-02 | 71 | 77.7 | 42 |
| Murray St | 2024-10-26 | 119 | 63 | 59 |
| Montana St | 2025-01-06 | 3 | 98.4 | TBD |
Summary: North Dakota State has faced a slightly tougher schedule overall, including two challenging matchups against South Dakota State, which featured the nation’s top-ranked defense. In those games, the Bison's scoring output dipped significantly, managing just 13 and 28 points, respectively. However, their offense showed some improvement in the playoffs, putting up 31 points against Mercer, which held the 13th-ranked defense in the country. On average, North Dakota State has scored 23 points per game against top-10 defenses and 30.33 points per game against top-20 defenses, reflecting their ability to adapt and perform against strong competition.
Scoring Output Against Different Levels of Defense
As Montana State and North Dakota State prepare for their championship showdown, a closer look at their scoring performance against top-tier defenses reveals key insights into their offensive capabilities. Montana State has been remarkably consistent, delivering high-scoring outputs even against the most formidable defenses in the FCS. North Dakota State, however, while facing generally tougher competition throughout the season, has not put up the same number of points against top-tier defenses. And it shows up in the numbers below.
Montana State Performance
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Top-10 Defenses:
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Played 4 Top-10 FCS Defenses: South Dakota, Idaho (twice), UC-Davis.
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Points Scored: 31, 38, 52, 30.
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Average Points Scored: 37.75.
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Top-20 Defenses:
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Includes: Montana (19), Tennessee-Martin (18).
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Points Scored: 34, 49, respectively
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Average Points Scored vs. Top-20: 39.
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Observations: Montana State has been highly consistent against strong defenses, showing resilience and adaptability in playoff situations.
North Dakota State Performance
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Top-10 Defenses:
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Opponents: South Dakota State (twice), South Dakota.
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Points Scored: 13, 28, 28
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Average Points Scored: 23.
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Top-20 Defenses:
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Includes: Mercer (13), Illinois State (14), East Tennessee State (16).
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Points Scored: 31, 42, 38, respectively
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Average Points Scored vs. Top-20: 30.33.
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Observations: NDSU struggles more against top-tier defenses, though they have shown improvement in recent playoff games.
Alternate Prediction
Based on the data above, let's make a couple of observations and predict the final score using an alternative model never before used by Versus. After all, this Montana State team is unlike any of its predecessors. So now might be a good time to analyze the data through a different lens.
Strength-of-Schedule Comparison
Montana State:
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Faced a wide range of defensive opponents, scoring consistently against top-tier and mid-tier defenses.
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Playoff performance has been stellar, including a 52-point outburst against Idaho (#7 defense) in December.
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Average Points Scored: 37.75 vs. Top-10 Defenses, 39 vs. Top-20 Defenses.
NDSU:
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Played slightly tougher competition overall, including two games against the #1 defense (South Dakota State). Scoring dropped significantly in those matchups (13 and 28 points).
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Playoff scoring improved slightly, with 31 points vs. Mercer (#13 defense).
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Average Points Scored: 23 vs. Top-10 Defenses, 30.33 vs. Top-20 Defenses.
Trends in Performance Consistency
Montana State:
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Scoring has been consistent across all tiers of defense, averaging 42 points against defenses ranked 11-50 and 44.14 points against defenses ranked 51-120.
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Maintains offensive production even against elite defenses, indicating strong adaptability.
NDSU:
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Explosive scoring against weaker defenses (averaging 51 points vs. defenses ranked 51-120).
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Inconsistent output against top-tier defenses, with a significant drop in production against elite opponents.
Defensive Matchup
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Montana State Defense: Ranked #3 with a rating of 98.4. Consistently limits opponents with disciplined play and strong tackling.
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NDSU Defense: Ranked #2 with a rating of 98.7. Slightly edges Montana State in defensive efficiency but has allowed higher scores in a few matchups against dynamic offenses.
Alternate Prediction for the Championship Game
Given the data, the championship game will likely be a low-scoring battle dominated by elite defenses. Both offenses have shown they can produce, but Montana State’s offensive consistency against top-tier defenses gives them the edge.
Scoring Projections:
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Montana State: Likely to score 30-34 points, based on their ability to perform against top defenses.
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NDSU: Likely to score 20-25 points, reflecting their struggles against elite opponents.
Winner Prediction Based on Alternative Model:
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Montana State 31, NDSU 23.
Key Factors:
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Turnovers: Both defenses excel at creating turnovers, which could swing the game.
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Red Zone Efficiency: Scoring opportunities will be limited, making red zone execution crucial.
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Time of Possession: Controlling the clock could give either team an edge in wearing down the opposing defense.
Versus Sports Simulator's Prediction Accuracy
Versus Sports Simulator is currently in its 14th season of publishing computer-generated predictions for College Football, dating back to the 2011-2012 season. Below is the overall prediction accuracy for both teams as well as a look at how Versus has fared in the head-to-head matchup.
| Team | Overall Accuracy | When Picked to Win | When Picked to Lose |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State Summary since 9/1/2011 |
132-35 (79%) | 96-16 (86%) | 36-19 (65%) |
| North Dakota State Summary since 9/1/2011 |
177-26 (87%) | 173-17 (91%) | 4-9 (31%) |
Head-to-head Prediction Summary
- Versus overall prediction accuracy in series: 3-1 (75%)
- Accuracy when Versus picked North Dakota State to win: 3-0 (100%)
- Accuracy when Versus picked Montana State to win: 0-1 (0%)
- North Dakota St leads the series 4-0
Final Thoughts
This matchup is as close as it gets, with two elite programs vying for the championship. Montana State’s consistent offensive output and ability to perform against top-tier defenses make them the favorite in this game. However, NDSU’s championship pedigree and explosive potential mean they should not be counted out.
For a lot more stats and analysis, try out our state-of-the-art game simulator. There, you can customize game simulations by adjusting offensive and defensive sliders and also introduce some degree of random chaos into the score outcomes.
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Steve Pugh, Founder and CEO, Compughter Technologies, LLC
Steve Pugh, the founder of Versus Sports Simulator, is passionate about the world of sports analytics and statistical modeling. With a deep-rooted love for math and sports, and a commitment to innovation, he's dedicated to equipping sports enthusiasts with useful tools and insights to help them make informed betting decisions.