Versus Sports Simulator NCAA Tournament First Round Upset Picks (and Some to Watch)
Opinion Piece by Jonathan Howard – The following article reflects the author's views and does not necessarily represent the predictions or endorsements of Versus Sports Simulator.
Sing it with me … It’s the most wonderful time of the year! The NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments provide weeks of entertainment, sleepless nights and endless water cooler talk at work. However, nothing beats the drama of an upset. The upsets that people select for their brackets easily out pace champion selection as a talking point. You’ve undoubtedly heard comments like these:
“McNeese State looks like they have so much fun!”
“Drake has 30 wins!”
“Purdue? More like Pur-don’t!”
Thanks to the Versus Sports Simulator, we’re able to pick which upsets are most likely to happen in both men’s and women’s tournaments. Which games does the simulator like? Let’s take a look. Please note, this does not include play-in game teams.
Men’s Upsets the Simulator Loves
No. 9 Baylor over No. 8 Mississippi State
Neither team enters this game running hot as Baylor dropped six of its last 10 and Mississippi State lost five of seven after knocking off Ole Miss and Texas A&M, both top 25 victories, in back-to-back games in mid-February. However, Baylor’s last two losses came to Texas Tech and Houston by a combined six points. The simulator likes Baylor to win at a 56 percent clip, with a point spread of 1.85. The simulator has the total set at 152 points. Baylor is 5-2 in games meeting or exceeding that point total, while Mississippi State is 7-9. Baylor likely has an advantage in the paint where Norchad Omier, is averaging a double-double with 15.9 points and 10.9 rebounds. MSU’s Cameron Matthews and Cameron Murphy will have their hands full trying to stop him.
No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis
Few teams are coming into the NCAA Tournament as hot as Colorado State, which has won 10 games in a row. The Rams haven’t lost since dropping a 93-85 decision to Utah State on the road on February 11, and have an average margin of victory over 14.9 points during their streak. Despite its 29 wins (16 in conference) and regular-season and tournament championships in the AAC, Memphis is viewed by many as a paper tiger (no pun intended, I promise). The simulator favors the Rams by 2.12 points, with victory in 57 percent of simulations. They are led by do-it-all guard Nique Clifford, who leads the team in scoring (19 ppg), rebounding (9.7 rpg), assists (4.4 apg) and steals (1.2 spg). Memphis is led by the trio of PJ Haggerty, Dain Dainja and Tyrese Hunter, who account for 62 percent of the team’s scoring.
Men’s Upsets to Watch
The simulator doesn’t have an upset happening in these games – but they’re at least close enough to keep an eye on.
No. 11 North Carolina over No. 6 Ole Miss
This one is nearly a straight upset pick. After running roughshod over San Diego State on Tuesday night, the Tar Heels have an opportunity to silence doubters in their matchup against the Rebels. Ole Miss is a VERY slight favorite, at just 0.07 points. The simulator has this as a near even split. UNC looked great over the last month of the season against all opponents except Duke, which won in Chapel Hill, then held off a furious second-half rally in the ACC Tournament without Cooper Flagg. On the other hand, Ole Miss is far more battle tested from a tougher conference schedule and has recent wins over Oklahoma, Arkansas and Tennessee. Ole Miss comes in as the 36th rated defense in the country by VS, while UNC ranks 9th offensively. UNC dismantled an even better defensive team in San Diego State – but Ole Miss is also a better offensive team, led by 3-point sniper Sean Pedulla (14.9 ppg). View the North Carolina versus Ole Miss game simulation.
No. 9 Creighton over No. 8 Louisville
Poor Louisville. The Cardinals finished 18-2 in the ACC, went to the ACC Tournament championship game, and ranks as No. 10 in this week’s AP poll. Yet, somehow, they got relegated to an 8 seed in Auburn’s bracket. The first-round matchup is no pushover either. Louisville is a 2.66-point pick by VS with a 59 percent win percentage in the simulations. In order to advance for a shot at the Tigers, Louisville will need to hold off Ryan Kalkbrenner (19.4 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 89 blocks) and veteran sharpshooter Steven Ashworth (16.3 ppg, 36.9 3-point percentage, 92.6 free throw percentage). The teams are rated similarly on defense, but Louisville has the upper hand on offense with five players averaging 12 points per game or more. The Cardinals are led by point guard Chucky Hepburn, who averages 16.3 points, 5.9 assists and 2.5 steals per game.
No. 9 Oklahoma over No. 8 UConn
The two-time defending champions will face an interesting test in Oklahoma, which only won 33 percent of its SEC games, but sniped victories over Louisville, Michigan, Arkansas, Mississippi State and Missouri. The Huskies are a 2 point pick over the Sooners, with a simulator win percentage of 56 percent. While this year’s team clearly isn’t as talented as the last two that Danny Hurley has coached, UConn is still fundamentally solid and has players who know how to win in March. Oklahoma will need big days from Jeremiah Fears (17 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 4.1 apg) and Jalon Moore (16 ppg, 5.8 rpg) in order to reach the next round.
Women’s Upsets to Watch
Unlike the men’s side, there are no outright upsets picked by the simulator. But, we’ve got a few to keep an eye on.
No. 9 Mississippi State over No. 8 Cal
This is another one that is almost an outright upset pick, but not quite. The eighth-seeded Golden Bears are only a 0.49-point pick over the Bulldogs, with a 51 percent VS win percentage. The teams are rated similarly on offense (MSU 35, Cal 37), but California is more stout on defense, ranking 37th to MSU’s 45th. To pull the upset, the Bulldogs will rely on graduate guard Jerkaila Jordan, who is averaging 16.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 steals per game. View the Mississippi State versus Cal Game Simulation.
No. 10 Nebraska over No. 7 Louisville
Nebraska and Louisville are a lot alike in that they both play in power conferences where they simply haven’t been able to hang with the best teams this year. Having said that, to Louisville’s credit, the Cardinals did pick up back-to-back wins over Florida State and Duke in February, and played North Carolina down to the wire in the game following those two. The seven seed is a 1.32-point pick with a 54 percent VS win percentage. The biggest difference in this game comes with Nebraska’s defense (82) vs Louisville’s offense (39). In order to spring the upset, the Cornhuskers will need to limit the duo of Taijanna Roberts and Jayda Curry, who make up 37 percent of Louisville’s scoring, 38 percent of its assists and 36 percent of its steals.
No. 9 Creighton over No. 8 Illinois
The 26-win Blue Jays have their work cut out for them if they want to knock off the Illini, who sport a top 20 defense. However, the simulator gives Illinois merely a 1.39-point edge and a 54 percent win percentage. Creighton will need senior guard Lauren Jenson (17.8 ppg, 90.2 percent free throw percentage) and Morgan wing Morgan Maly (17.3 ppg, 43 3-point percentage) to play to form in order to topple Illinois for the right to face Texas in the round of 32.
Disclaimer: This article is an opinion piece written by Jonathan Howard. The views expressed are his own and may not reflect the official stance or recommendations of Versus Sports Simulator.
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Jonathan Howard, Sports Analyst
Jonathan Howard is a veteran sports writer from Richmond, Virginia. His work has been featured in newspapers such as the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post and The Virginian-Pilot. He enjoys cheering for his alma mater - VCU - and playing golf when time allows.