College Basketball: The ACC is Awful, But Don’t Forget About It

By: Jonathan Howard, Staff Writer
January 26, 2025

We’ve nearly made it to February, which unbelievably means we’re closer to the NCAA Tournament than to the beginning of the regular season. And, for at least the fourth season in row a good number of us are sitting at home wondering “what in the heck happened to the ACC?”

Yes, Duke (16-2, 8-0 ACC) is sitting pretty at No. 2 in this week’s AP Top 25 and freshman Cooper Flagg is living up to his reputation as a potential No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. But after that, things start to get murky. Louisville (15-5, 8-1) checked in at No. 25 in this week’s poll, riding a nine-game winning streak and Clemson (16-4, 8-1) sits just on the outside looking in, as winners of four straight. After that, you’ve got Wake Forest on a six-game winning streak – but only five of those teams have winning records. The one that does – North Carolina (12-8, 5-3) has struggled to find consistency all year. The league once known as college basketball’s powerhouse currently has only six of its 18 members inside of the NET top 50 rankings while the SEC and Big Ten boast 13 and 11, respectively. Further, six ACC teams sit outside the top 100 and two more outside the top 200.

Regardless of the league’s bleak beginnings to the season, let’s make sure to not let it cloud our judgment come March. In each of the last three seasons, the ACC sent only five teams to the NCAA Tournament. But in those three seasons, the league has sent a combined seven teams to the Elite Eight and have had a representative in all three Final Fours, including North Carolina’s appearance in the 2022 title game as an 8 seed. Of the seven Elite Eight appearances, five have come from teams seeded on the 5 line or worse. Bottom line – the teams in the middle of the pack have a knack for making runs when it’s least expected. So, who from the ACC can jump up and surprise us? Let’s take a look:

Louisville

The Cardinals might sit inside the top three of the conference, but based on Joe Lunardi’s most recent bracket on ESPN, they are on the 6 line. Louisville has run off nine straight wins since losing on the road to arch rival Kentucky in mid-December and has averaged a 21-point victory over its last three games. Wisconsin transfer Chucky Hepburn has paced Cardinals this season, averaging a career-best 15.1 points to go along with 6.4 assists and 3.4 rebounds per game. The problem with believing Louisville can make a deep run lies in its early season record. The Cardinals lost to Tennessee, Ole Miss and Duke by double digits and dropped major conference matchups to Kentucky and Oklahoma. On the plus side, they did beat West Virginia and Indiana in the Battle 4 Atlantis. The biggest reason for optimism here is that first-year head coach Pat Kelsey built this team from scratch, and early-season issues can easily be attributed to that. As the team has gelled, wins have come frequently against ACC foes. The ceiling continues to look higher as the season goes on.

Clemson

It’s always hard to trust Clemson, who has had a reputation of running through weak non-conference schedules only to falter in ACC play and sneak into the tournament by the skin of its teeth. The Tigers, currently projected as a 7 seed, showed reason for optimism by knocking off Kentucky in the ACC-SEC challenge. But the Tigers followed the win with back-to-back overtime losses to Memphis and South Carolina. Since, the Tigers have only lost in conference to Louisville with dates against Duke and North Carolina coming up in early February. A major reason for optimism for a return run to the Elite Eight, where the sixth-seeded Tigers took Alabama to the wire a year ago lies in the roster. Veteran guard Chase Hunter and forward Ian Schieffelin were key cogs last year and are leading the way again this year with help from Boston College transfer Jaeden Zackery. Hunter is averaging 17.9 points per game while Schieffelin is averaging 12.9 points and 9.9 rebounds. Zackery is averaging 11 points per game while hitting 88.9 percent of his free throws.

Wake Forest

Fresh off a one-point victory over North Carolina, the Demon Deacons have won six in a row in the ACC since suffering an 11-point loss to Clemson. Technically, Pittsburgh should be in this slot, as the Panthers have a spot in Luardi’s field while Wake is currently on the outside looking in. But, it’s my feeling that the Demon Deacons will prove to be the better team and have the better chance to make noise. They’ll have an opportunity to work its way in over the next three games in which it will face Duke, Louisville and Pittsburgh. Wake Forest boasts an early-season win over Michigan, but did not look good in losses to Texas A&M and Florida, so this stretch holds importance for NET rankings going forward. Wake Forest is at its best when guards Hunter Sallis (19.2 ppg) and Cam Hildreth (14.2 ppg) are attacking the basket and big man Efton Reid (59 fouls through 18 games) can stay on the floor.

North Carolina

I’m unsure if I can think of an accurate description for watching UNC games this season … but it’s been wild. The Tar Heels quickly fell behind by double digits in losses to Kansas, Auburn, Michigan State, Alabama and Florida and did the same in come-from-behind victories against Dayton and UCLA. They looked unstoppable in wins against SMU and California, but let long scoring droughts lead to losses to Stanford and Wake Forest. Quite simply, this is a team that is too inconsistent to be trusted and while UNC is currently a 10 seed in Lunardi’s latest projection, it could easily play its way out of contention without multiple quality wins that remain on the conference schedule. If that happens, the reason to believe in a deep tournament run lies in the Tar Heels backcourt. R.J. Davis leads UNC at 17.5 points per game, but has struggled to find his 3-point touch this season, shooting only 29.1 percent from deep. However, he’s a veteran who has performed for the Tar Heels on the biggest stage. Freshman Ian Jackson (14.7 ppg, 37.4 percent from 3) has proven he can lead the team as well. If Elliot Cadeau (124 assists, 2:1 ATO) can take care of the ball and forward Jalen Washington (6.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg) can find a rhythm in the paint, Carolina could find a way to make another run.

In Summary

• The ACC has sent five teams seeded 5th or worse to the Elite Eight over the last three years. This is a trend that has a good chance to continue.

• Louisville, currently at the very back of the top 25, has the best chance to continue to trend at this time – but could easily move up to a higher seed if it continues its high level of play.

• Clemson has a veteran team that returns many of the same pieces that made a run to the Elite Eight as a 6 seed last season.

• UNC and Wake Forest both have guards capable of leading their teams to deep tournament runs if they remain consistent.

How Do These Teams Match With Each Other?

As always, check out the power and performance rankings on Versus Sports Simulator to see how these ACC teams stack up against each other head-to-head or against other competition.