Predicting the Final Four: Key Data Insights for NCAA Tournament Success

By: Jonathan Howard, Staff Writer
February 25, 2025

As we enter the final couple weeks of the NCAA College Basketball regular season, it’s time to start locking in those NCAA Tournament Final Four and champion futures – if you haven’t done so already. While the beauty of the tournament lies in its ability to bring us dramatic upsets and Cinderella stories, we can still use history to predict who has the best chance to move on to the tournament’s final weekend. Using data going back to 2015, I’m attempting to do just that.

What Data Are We Using?

I pulled the final Versus Sports Simulator D1 College Basketball Rankings going back to the 2015 season. For each Final Four team, I pulled the Versus power ranking, offensive ranking, and defensive ranking for each final team, then took the average for each. Using those averages, I determined a range that the teams are most likely to fall in under each data point. NOTE: This is not the official Versus Sports Simulator prediction. I am merely using its data to make my own prediction.

What Do Past Final Four Teams Have in Common?

Using Versus Sports Simulator numbers going back to 2015, Final Four teams had an average Versus power ranking of about 10, an average offensive ranking of about 31, and an average defensive ranking of about 32. For comparison sake, I’ll be using the Versus data as of February 22.

Versus Power Ranking – Top 20

Teams that qualify: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, Arizona, Texas Tech, Maryland, Iowa State, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, Missouri, St. John’s, Michigan, Texas A&M

Versus Offense Ranking – Top 62

Teams that qualify: Alabama, Kentucky, Auburn, Illinois, Gonzaga, Florida, Arizona, Missouri, Maryland, Michigan, Wisconsin, Texas Tech, Duke, Iowa State, Purdue, Michigan State, St. John’s, Houston

Who is out: Texas A&M, Tennessee

The SEC representatives both have top 10 defenses and have the ability to get good teams out of their offensive rhythms. But the problem is, in big games, if the opposition’s defense comes out with similar energy – or if their own defensive energy falters – they don’t necessarily have the offensive firepower to fight back.

A prime example is Tennessee’s January 7 loss to Florida, in which the Gators smacked the Volunteers 73-43. On the flip side, Tennessee got into track meets against Vanderbilt (76-75, Jan 18) and Kentucky (78-73, Jan 28) and simply couldn’t keep up.

It’s a similar story for Texas A&M, who couldn’t keep up with Alabama and Kentucky in back-to-back January losses, and was held to 54 points in a 16-point loss to Mississippi State last week.

Versus Defense Rating – Top 68

Teams that qualify: Houston, Duke, Auburn, Michigan State, St. John’s, Florida, Purdue, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Arizona, Wisconsin, Missouri, Michigan, Gonzaga

Who is out: Alabama, Kentucky, Illinois, Maryland

I’ve got no problem saying goodbye to our Big Ten representatives. Illinois has three losses in a row to good teams that haven’t been close.

Maryland has potential, but has its best opponents ahead of it to truly prove itself as a contender. It’s more difficult to get rid of Kentucky, which is pretty much the polar opposite of Tennessee and Texas A&M. When Kentucky is on its game, Mark Pope’s squad can outscore pretty much anyone. The problem is – when the other team’s offense is on, all bets are off. Of the Wildcats’ nine losses, seven have come when giving up 82 points or more.

Along the same lines – it’s extremely difficult to leave Alabama out of a Final Four prediction. This is a team that has broken 90 points 16 times and 100 points seven times this season. They can outscore anyone at any time. But defensively, they are susceptible, and in a tournament format, an off night is the end of the season. The Crimson Tide scored 98 points against Missouri last week…and lost by 12.

Which Teams are Left?

After analyzing the data, here are the remaining teams, along with their Versus Power Ranking (PR), Offensive Ranking (OR), and Defensive Ranking (DR):

• Auburn: PR: 1 | OR: 3 | DR: 12

• Duke: PR: 2 | OR: 16 | DR: 3

• Houston: PR: 3 | OR: 49 | DR: 1

• Florida: PR: 4 | OR: 6 | DR: 16

• Arizona: PR: 7 | OR: 7 | DR: 32

• Texas Tech: PR: 8 | OR: 14 | DR: 25

• Iowa State: PR: 10 | OR: 17 | DR: 21

• Gonzaga: PR: 11 | OR: 5 | DR: 61

• Wisconsin: PR: 13 | OR: 13 | DR: 36

• Michigan State: PR: 15 | OR: 28 | DR: 14

• Purdue: PR: 16 | OR: 27 | DR: 19

• Missouri: PR: 17 | OR: 9 | DR: 51

• St. John’s: PR: 18 | OR: 30 | DR: 15

• Michigan: PR: 19 | OR: 11 | DR: 54

Who Do I Like?

Of the 14 teams remaining of the initial 20, there are four that stand out to me amongst the others. Auburn and Duke are the two best teams in the country – and for good reason. They’ve got the two best players in the country in Johni Broome and Cooper Flagg, but also have the surrounding pieces to carry a team in the event that either has a bad night. Both teams are stout defensively, but the thing I love most about them is their offensive balance. They’re both deadly from all three levels, and don’t need to light it up from 3-point range to win a game, unlike say, Alabama.

On the other end of the spectrum, I love St. John’s and Michigan from this group as well. It’s hard to imagine a team ranked in the top 10 of the latest AP poll as under the radar, but that’s exactly how I feel about St. John’s. Coming off a big win over UConn, Rick Pitino has the Red Storm sitting two games clear of second place in the Big East. St. John’s is deep and experienced at guard and wing, which will go a long way come tournament time. RJ Luis (17.4 ppg, 7.1 rpg) is a tough guard and a matchup nightmare in March.

As for Michigan, the Wolverines have found ways to win close conference games in a tough Big Ten all year. They have some losses that are certainly worthy of pause (75-62 to Michigan State last week; 91-64 to Purdue on January 24), but few teams in the country have the offensive firepower and versatility in the front court that Michigan has in Vladislav Goldin (15.9 ppg, 5.1 rpg) and Danny Wolf (12.8 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 3.8 apg).

Final Thoughts: Predicting the Final Four

While it’s always exciting to predict who will make it to the Final Four, the beauty of March Madness is that anything can happen. That said, by looking at key data points like power rankings, offensive and defensive efficiency, and historical trends, we can start to see which teams are well-positioned for success.

Auburn and Duke are clear favorites, both featuring top-tier talent and balanced, well-rounded teams. But don’t sleep on St. John’s and Michigan, who may not be getting the same level of attention but have the necessary pieces to surprise in the tournament.

Ultimately, the teams that excel in both offense and defense, as well as demonstrate the ability to win close games, will have the edge come tournament time. Keep an eye on these teams as the tournament unfolds—while predictions are based on data, March Madness is known for throwing a few curveballs!

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Did You Know?

Did you know Versus Sports Simulator now covers Women’s College Basketball as well as Division II and Division III? You can check out the latest rankings at the links below. Game predictions and unlimited simulations are available via subscription.

Women’s D1 College Basketball Rankings

Men’s D2 College Basketball Rankings

Men’s D3 College Basketball Rankings