March Madness 2025 Projections
🏀 View the Official Versus Sports Simulator 2025 March Madness Bracket on ESPN
Key Insights from 15,000 Simulations: Round by Round Projections
Versus Sports Simulator's latest NCAA Tournament projections offer some intriguing insights, shaped by data from 15,000 simulations conducted using advanced predictive modeling. The results highlight several noteworthy trends regarding this year's top NCAA tournament teams. Auburn, Duke, and Florida lead the pack as strong championship contenders, while Houston's defensive dominance makes them a dark horse despite a weaker offensive ranking. Alabama's elite offense is offset by a surprisingly poor defense, making them a high-risk, high-reward pick. Meanwhile, teams like Texas Tech and Iowa State strike a more balanced profile, indicating their potential to exceed expectations.
Simulation Results
The table below depicts the round-by-round probabilities of each team's journey through the 2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket. By default, the table is ordered by each team's chances of winning the national championship. You can re-sort the table by clicking/tapping on a column header.
| Team | Overall Rank | Power Rank | Offense Rank | Defense Rank | Round of 32 |
Sweet Sixteen |
Great Eight |
Final Four |
Finals | Champs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn (28-5) | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 99 | 77.5 | 58.3 | 39.2 | 24 | 13.9 |
| Duke (31-3) | 4 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 98.9 | 77.6 | 56.1 | 36.3 | 22.8 | 13.8 |
| Florida (30-4) | 2 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 98.9 | 77.7 | 55.4 | 35.3 | 20.6 | 11.7 |
| Houston (30-4) | 3 | 3 | 50 | 1 | 99 | 71.8 | 52.8 | 33.4 | 19.2 | 11.3 |
| Alabama (25-8) | 5 | 5 | 1 | 142 | 96.2 | 71.4 | 47.1 | 25.2 | 13.5 | 7 |
| Tennessee (27-7) | 6 | 6 | 65 | 2 | 96.1 | 67.4 | 41.1 | 21.7 | 10.9 | 5.6 |
| Texas Tech (25-8) | 18 | 7 | 11 | 20 | 94 | 60.5 | 35 | 17.7 | 9 | 4.4 |
| Iowa St (24-9) | 22 | 10 | 15 | 19 | 93.9 | 61.2 | 34.7 | 16.3 | 8.2 | 3.9 |
| Michigan St (27-6) | 7 | 12 | 31 | 10 | 96 | 62.6 | 36.2 | 17.4 | 8.4 | 3.6 |
| St John's (30-4) | 8 | 14 | 26 | 15 | 95.9 | 58.7 | 32 | 15.3 | 7.2 | 3.2 |
| Maryland (25-8) | 19 | 8 | 16 | 16 | 90.3 | 62.1 | 27.6 | 15.1 | 7.3 | 3.1 |
| Kentucky (22-11) | 11 | 15 | 4 | 96 | 93.9 | 51.7 | 26.4 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 2.5 |
| Wisconsin (26-9) | 16 | 16 | 17 | 31 | 93.9 | 54.7 | 26.5 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 2.3 |
| Arizona (22-12) | 24 | 9 | 7 | 53 | 90 | 56.9 | 23.1 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 |
| Purdue (22-11) | 20 | 17 | 27 | 25 | 89.9 | 55.1 | 19.9 | 9.3 | 4 | 1.5 |
| Texas A&M (22-10) | 13 | 20 | 51 | 9 | 89.9 | 50.8 | 17.9 | 9 | 3.6 | 1.3 |
| Illinois (21-12) | 27 | 13 | 5 | 69 | 62.9 | 33.6 | 16 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| Gonzaga (25-8) | 32 | 11 | 6 | 55 | 53 | 17.4 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| Michigan (25-9) | 9 | 19 | 21 | 37 | 65.1 | 34.8 | 12.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| Missouri (22-11) | 23 | 18 | 8 | 76 | 68.7 | 30.6 | 15.6 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| BYU (24-9) | 26 | 21 | 10 | 62 | 59.1 | 29.5 | 12.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| Clemson (27-6) | 12 | 27 | 56 | 14 | 69.5 | 34.7 | 11.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| Oregon (24-9) | 15 | 31 | 41 | 39 | 68.2 | 32.5 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| Kansas (21-12) | 31 | 22 | 39 | 17 | 54.9 | 25 | 11.3 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| Marquette (23-10) | 36 | 26 | 33 | 32 | 55 | 22.7 | 10.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| UCLA (22-10) | 29 | 25 | 70 | 8 | 57 | 21.2 | 10 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Baylor (18-14) | 49 | 23 | 32 | 27 | 50.9 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Mississippi (22-11) | 17 | 28 | 34 | 43 | 54.6 | 22.9 | 9.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| Connecticut (23-10) | 45 | 29 | 45 | 30 | 51.5 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Louisville (27-7) | 10 | 24 | 25 | 40 | 51.1 | 12.1 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Memphis (29-5) | 14 | 60 | 38 | 111 | 44.8 | 19.2 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| St Mary's CA (27-5) | 21 | 35 | 157 | 3 | 53 | 16.7 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Arkansas (21-13) | 42 | 36 | 48 | 41 | 45.1 | 15.4 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Creighton (24-10) | 35 | 37 | 49 | 44 | 48.9 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Georgia (20-12) | 33 | 33 | 60 | 18 | 47 | 10.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Mississippi St (22-12) | 30 | 32 | 20 | 65 | 49.1 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Oklahoma (20-13) | 37 | 40 | 24 | 79 | 48.5 | 10.2 | 4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Akron (26-6) | 62 | 114 | 64 | 247 | 10 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alabama St (18-15) | 239 | 282 | 258 | 268 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| American Univ (20-12) | 191 | 251 | 319 | 145 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryant (21-11) | 172 | 170 | 97 | 290 | 4 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Colorado St (25-9) | 39 | 49 | 67 | 45 | 55.2 | 15.4 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Drake (28-3) | 25 | 76 | 261 | 6 | 31.3 | 7.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Grand Canyon (25-7) | 77 | 98 | 76 | 162 | 9.7 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| High Point (27-5) | 68 | 101 | 72 | 177 | 10.1 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Liberty (26-6) | 48 | 83 | 140 | 50 | 31.8 | 7.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lipscomb (23-9) | 120 | 105 | 147 | 91 | 6.1 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| McNeese St (25-7) | 65 | 78 | 128 | 54 | 30.5 | 7.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Montana (22-9) | 108 | 164 | 131 | 229 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mt St Mary's (21-12) | 177 | 262 | 276 | 217 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NE Omaha (20-12) | 153 | 162 | 121 | 235 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| New Mexico (26-7) | 28 | 41 | 19 | 95 | 45 | 13.8 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Norfolk St (21-10) | 168 | 201 | 201 | 210 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| North Carolina (23-13) | 38 | 34 | 9 | 116 | 32.5 | 10.8 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Robert Morris (25-8) | 110 | 147 | 155 | 178 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| San Diego St (20-9) | 44 | 52 | 133 | 11 | 12.9 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| SIUE (19-11) | 208 | 237 | 300 | 154 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| St Francis PA (13-17) | 281 | 322 | 284 | 316 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas (19-15) | 50 | 38 | 28 | 67 | 19.1 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy (21-10) | 111 | 112 | 197 | 71 | 6.1 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UC San Diego (28-4) | 40 | 56 | 95 | 29 | 34.9 | 11.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| UNC Wilmington (25-7) | 87 | 120 | 144 | 143 | 6 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Utah St (25-7) | 34 | 48 | 22 | 117 | 43 | 10.6 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Vanderbilt (20-12) | 41 | 44 | 18 | 108 | 47 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0 |
| VCU (27-6) | 43 | 42 | 79 | 22 | 40.9 | 14.4 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Wofford (17-15) | 176 | 153 | 186 | 158 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier (21-11) | 56 | 39 | 29 | 70 | 18 | 6.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Yale (21-7) | 83 | 93 | 78 | 136 | 10.1 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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Steve Pugh, Founder and CEO, Compughter Technologies, LLC
Steve Pugh, the founder of Versus Sports Simulator, is passionate about the world of sports analytics and statistical modeling. With a deep-rooted love for math and sports, and a commitment to innovation, he's dedicated to equipping sports enthusiasts with useful tools and insights to help them make informed betting decisions.