The College Football Playoff Controversy: Why Florida State Got Snubbed

By: Steve Pugh, Founder, Versus Sports Simulator
December 4, 2023

The College Football Playoff (CFP) selection committee has a tough job year in and year out. It’s a dreadfully meticulous process to consider all the team resumes and determine which four teams will make the final cut. In the 2023 season, however, the committee was faced with making an unprecedented decision to omit an undefeated Power 5 conference champion from the playoff field. Florida State University (FSU) found itself undefeated, but left out of the four-team playoff. In this article, we’re going to look at the key factors that ultimately contributed to FSU’s exclusion.

Which Teams Made the Cut?

On Sunday, December 3, the top four teams according to the selection committee were Michigan (13-0, Big Ten champion), Washington (13-0, Pac-12 champion), Texas (12-1, Big 12 champion) and Alabama (12-1, SEC champion). Florida State (13-0, ACC champion) was placed at number 5 and on the outside looking in.

Versus Sports Simulator, which is powered by a highly sophisticated computer algorithm, also had those same four teams in the Top 4 and Florida State at number 5. The order was slightly different, however, with Washington taking the top spot, followed by Michigan, Alabama, and Texas.

Using Empirical Data to Produce Analytical Insights

Before we delve into the rationale behind Florida State’s snub, keep in mind that we are using team rankings and data generated by Versus Sports Simulator. We are not using historical rankings or current/past human polls. Teams are not credited for playing or defeating a team who was once top ranked but later fell in the rankings. We are only considering today’s rankings, as generated by the Versus Sports Simulator algorithm, which encompasses the entire season and is based purely on empirical data and not human opinion.

The TL;DR for this article is summed up in the table below. It highlights some key statistics related to the top 7 teams that were almost certainly considered by the selection committee. The five cells highlighted in yellow are the data points we will explore in further detail.

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Five Key Reasons Why Florida State Didn’t Make the College Football Playoff

A lot of college football pundits are speculating that the selection committee omitted Florida State due to the recent injury of starting quarterback Jordan Travis. While that may be partially true, there are also some important analytical insights that indicate that the Seminoles' resume just wasn't quite as impressive as the top 4 teams. After all, the selection committee is charged with looking at the entire body of work of each team. So without further ado, here are five key reasons why Florida State might have been left out of the college football playoff picture in 2023.

1. Florida State Had the Weakest Strength of Schedule Ranking

One of the most crucial aspects in CFP consideration is the strength of schedule. FSU ranked 52nd overall in this category, significantly lower than the other top teams. While all the teams in consideration enjoyed some impressive wins during the season, FSU's schedule didn't feature as many high-quality adversaries.

2. Florida State Played Fewer Top 25 Teams

The CFP committee assesses how teams perform against other top-ranked teams. FSU played only two games against Top 25 opponents, winning both. All of the other contenders faced at least three Top 25 teams.

Below is a listing of each of the top contenders' Top 25 opponents. Losses are highlighted in red. Even if you take away the losses for Alabama and Texas and consider only their Top 25 wins, it's still more impressive than Florida State's two wins over #13 LSU and #16 Louisville.

Teams with 3 Top 25 wins

• Washington (5-0): vs #8 Oregon (x2), at #18 Arizona, vs #19 Utah, at #22 Oregon St
• Michigan (3-0): vs #7 Ohio St, at #9 Penn St, #15 Iowa
• Alabama (3-1): vs #4 Texas (Lost), #6 Georgia, vs #10 Ole Miss, vs #13 LSU
• Texas (3-1): at #3 Alabama, vs #12 Oklahoma (Lost), vs #23 Kansas St, #25 Oklahoma St

Teams with 2 Top 25 wins

• Florida State (2-0): #13 LSU, #16 Louisville
• Georgia (2-1): #3 Alabama (Lost), vs #10 Ole Miss, vs #11 Missouri
• Ohio State (2-1): #2 Michigan (Lost), vs #9 Penn St, at #20 Notre Dame

While it's impressive that Florida State finished it's entire schedule undefeated, is it better to have played a tough team and lost, or to have not played a tough team at all? Why should Alabama be penalized for scheduling a mid-season game against Texas?

3. Florida State’s Best Win Wasn’t that Great

Another aspect under scrutiny is the quality of wins. The Seminoles’ best win was against #13 LSU, the lowest-ranked "best win" among the top contenders. In contrast, other teams secured victories against higher-ranked opponents. Florida State was the only contender to not beat a Top 10 team.

• Texas defeated #3 Alabama
• Alabama defeated #6 Georgia
• Michigan defeated #7 Ohio State
• Washington defeated #8 Oregon
• Ohio State defeated #9 Penn State
• Georgia defeated #10 Ole Miss

4. Florida State’s Opponents Had a Losing Record

FSU's opponents collectively had a win-loss record of just 77-79 (48.1%). This contrasted heavily with other top teams who faced opponents with better (greater than 50%) records, indicating a tougher path to success. In fact, all of the other top teams’ opponent records ranged from 83-75 (52.5%) to 98-61 (61.7%). See the chart below.

5. Florida State’s Average Opponent Rank was Lowest

FSU also had the lowest average opponent rank, suggesting they faced teams with lower overall rankings compared to the other contenders. Summarizing from the chart above:

• FSU Average Opponent Rank: 91.2
• Other Top Contenders: Ranged from 59.8 (Washington) to 81.5 (Georgia)

Conclusion

While FSU's undefeated record is impressive, these statistics shed light on why the committee ultimately chose other teams for the College Football Playoff. Strength of schedule, quality of wins, and the performance against top-ranked teams played significant roles in shaping the final decision.

In college football, every detail matters, and FSU's exclusion from the top four demonstrates the emphasis placed on a team's entire body of work.